As far as these categories are concerned, I think I’m a little out of my league because I’m not as well-versed in the nominees as I am for comedies and dramas. However, it seems inevitable that usually one or two of the miniseries or movies nominated tends to dominate, and I imagine that will again be true this year. So, to the best of my abilities, here are my predictions and general feelings about the Emmy nominees for the miniseries and movie categories.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
- Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
- Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Coven
- Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
- Minnie Driver, Return to Zero
- Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon
- Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful
I imagine the award in this category will be a real fight between the two ladies of AHS: Coven, but after watching the ridiculous and entertaining The Spoils of Babylon a few nights ago, I’d love to see Kristen Wiig win. That will probably never happen, though. My money’s on Sarah Paulson.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
- Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
- Martin Freeman, Fargo
- Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
- Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo
- Idris Elba, Luther
- Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
I think this category could be a bit of a toss up. As far as awards go, I think Sherlock is wildly underappreciated, and I would absolutely love to see Benedict Cumberbatch win here. He’s brilliant in his performance, and there’s nothing more to say on that subject. I think, though, that the two Fargo men are going to be the bigger competitors here, but I’d give the edge to Billy Bob Thornton for his showier performance. Mark Ruffalo was also very good in The Normal Heart, but I don’t think his performance or the movie in general were as good as some of the others in this category.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
- Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven
- Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven
- Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
- Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
- Allison Tolman, Fargo
- Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
I could see this award going a few different ways. Since half the nominees come from AHS: Coven, I could see these women splitting the vote, but it’s also very possible for one of them to take home the prize. Of these three, I’d say Kathy Bates is most likely to win, and she’d certainly deserve it. I’m also hoping that Allison Tolman has a real shot, because she’s not only adorable, she was also great as Molly Solverson. Also, Ellen Burstyn won this award last year for a really terrible show, so she better not have a repeat.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
- Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow
- Colin Hanks, Fargo
- Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart
- Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
- Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
- Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart
I’ve seen all six of the performances in this category, and I’m fairly torn. Like my comments on the Lead Actor category, I think I’d be pretty happy to see most of these men win, but I’m partial to Colin Hanks and Martin Freeman. Sherlock just doesn’t get the recognition it deserves, and Martin Freeman is the perfect complement to Benedict Cumberbatch. I can’t imagine a better pair as Sherlock Holmes and John Watson. Colin Hanks also gave a great breakout performance on Fargo, and he’s just so likeable (like father, like son, I guess), that you have to root for him. I have a feeling the four nominees from The Normal Heart will split votes, but I think Matt Bomer and Joe Mantello have the strongest chances at winning. Personally, though, I hope it goes to one of the two non-Normal Heart actors.
- American Horror Story: Coven, FX
- Bonnie and Clyde, Lifetime
- Fargo, FX
- Luther, BBC America
- Treme, HBO
- The White Queen, Starz
American Horror Story has dominated the miniseries categories in recent years, but I think it’s likely that Fargo will upset their record. It seems to me that these two shows are the only two in the running here, and I think Fargo is strong enough to overcome the previous winner.
Outstanding Television Movie
- Killing Kennedy, National Geographic
- The Normal Heart, HBO
- Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight, HBO
- Sherlock: His Last Vow, PBS
- The Trip to Bountiful, Lifetime
I’m a bit of a broken record on this subject, but I just really think it would be wonderful if Sherlock won a few things on awards night. Though the show only submitted a single episode as a TV movie (because they all run an hour-and-a-half), it’s a bit difficult to judge it against more conventional movies. I know the only other real contender here is The Normal Heart, which I expect will win. After watching it a few nights ago, I really don’t think the HBO production lived up to the high standards of Sherlock, in terms of writing, performances, or production value. However, I think Sherlock is the underdog here, so I’ll probably be a bit disappointed in the end. Sigh.
And to conclude, let’s all just take a moment to appreciate the fact that Martin Freeman’s face is all over the miniseries/TV movie categories. It makes me very happy.
Stay tuned for my input about the comedy categories!