2015 Golden Globe Predictions — TV

I always feel a bit better making predictions about TV than film just because I tend to be a bit more informed. I think the Golden Globes might be the start of an interesting TV awards season since it seems like many past big winners (“Mad Men,” “Breaking Bad,” “Modern Family”) have either ended or aren’t nominated.

Best Drama Series

  • The Affair
  • Downton Abbey
  • Game of Thrones
  • The Good Wife
  • House of Cards

So this feels like an odd category this year. As much as I love and enjoy “Downton Abbey,” it isn’t heavy enough as a drama to win here, and I think voters would consider “Game of Thrones” to flashy and fantastical to award it (though this is unfair). My instinct says “The Good Wife” will win. I know many people were upset that it wasn’t nominated for an Emmy, so maybe this will be time to fix that problem. Also, when did people start caring about “The Affair”? I watched the first episode when it happened, but now I’m thinking it’s time to pick back up.

Best Comedy Series

  • Girls
  • Jane the Virgin
  • Orange is the New Black
  • Silicon Valley
  • Transparent

Another odd mix of shows in comparison with times past. I watch three of the five shows here, so I’m not sure who to pick. I imagine “Orange is the New Black” will come away victorious, but I could also see “Transparent,” a show with lots of similarities to “OITNB,” stealing the win.

Best Miniseries or TV Movie

  • Fargo
  • The Missing
  • The Normal Heart
  • Olive Kitteridge
  • True Detective

I’m going to come right out with my bias now: I DO NOT WANT “TRUE DETECTIVE” TO WIN AWARDS. I enjoyed the first season on a lukewarm level; I thought it was over-praised and kind of pseudo-intellectual. Despite this, though, the real reason I don’t want it to win is because it’s flip-flopped so often between Drama Series and Miniseries that I get pissed off. Okay, rant over.

The good news is that there are several worthy options in this category aside from “True Detective.” “Fargo” was wonderful, “The Normal Heart” was very moving, and “Olive Kitteridge” (which I just finished last night) is also great. Right now, my vote goes to “Fargo,” but really, I’ll just be happy if “True Detective” doesn’t win here.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

  • Claire Danes, “Homeland”
  • Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
  • Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
  • Ruth Wilson, “The Affair”
  • Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

In my mind, this category is really between two actresses: Viola Davis and Julianna Margulies. If I were voting, my vote would go to Claire Danes who never ceases to be fantastic on “Homeland,” but I think her time has passed. Though I’ve only seen one episode of “The Affair,” I’ve been watching “Luther” lately, and Ruth Wilson’s great performance on it makes me sure she’s very worthy of her nomination, but I doubt she’ll win. Since so many people love “The Good Wife,” I think Margulies has a real shot, but I think Viola Davis will ultimately win. People love her and she’s great, even if Shonda Rimes creates ridiculous and campy shows (that I totally watch and enjoy).

Best Actor in a Drama Series

  • Clive Owen, “The Knick”
  • Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”
  • James Spader, “The Blacklist”
  • Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
  • Dominic West, “The Affair”

I kind of feel like there’s a big question mark floating over my head about this category. I don’t watch any of these shows and none of these people are past winners, so it’s hard to say who will win. Right now, my guess is that James Spader will take home a victory, if for no other reason than to show some appreciation for network TV.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Lena Dunham, “Girls”
  • Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
  • Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”
  • Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black”

It’s a crime that Amy Poehler didn’t get nominated after winning this category last year, but I’m very happy to see Gina Rodriguez take her place. My general assumption is always that Julia Louis-Dreyfus will win the things she’s nominated for (because she’s amazingly talented), I’ve seen a few predictions that Gina Rodriguez will win. Since the Golden Globes have a history of awarding first-time nominees, I think this seems quite possible, and I’d be happy for her if it happens.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
  • Louis C.K., “Louie”
  • Ricky Gervais, “Derek”
  • William H. Macy, “Shameless”
  • Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

I’ve only seen one of these performances, but luckily, I think it’s the one that will likely win. Jeffrey Tambor is wonderful on “Transparent,” even though the show is quite heavy for a comedy. He should (and hopefully will) win.

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

  • Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honorable Woman”
  • Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
  • Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge”
  • Frances O’Connor, “The Missing”
  • Allison Tolman, “Fargo”

Another category where I have a hard time picking between people I really like. Allison Tolman was great in her breakout performance on “Fargo,” and Jessica Lange is always perfect on “American Horror Story” (especially in this particularly emotional season). However, I think it seems most likely that Frances McDormand will win for her brilliant, hilarious, heartbreaking performance in “Olive Kitteridge.”

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

  • Martin Freeman, “Fargo”
  • Woody Harrelson, “True Detective”
  • Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective”
  • Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart”
  • Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo”

I don’t think it’s necessary for my “True Detective” rant again, so I won’t go there (though to be fair, I really like these two actors, I just don’t want them to win). I’m hoping Mark Ruffalo wins for his moving performance in “The Normal Heart,” though I’d definitely be happy with more “Fargo” victories.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
  • Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
  • Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey”
  • Allison Janney, “Mom”
  • Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective”

Now come the two weirdest categories at the Golden Globes, in which they shove together supporting performances from dramas, comedies, TV movies, and miniseries for no particular reason. Season four of “Downton Abbey” was certainly most challenging for Joanne Froggatt, whose character was raped early in the season. Though she played in beautifully, I doubt she’ll win. I’m sure this race is between Uzo Aduba and Kathy Bates, both of whom won at the Emmys for the first seasons of their shows. Since Bates’s role on “Freak Show” has been smaller, I think Uzo Aduba seems more likely to win, but we’ll see how things turn out.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart”
  • Alan Cumming, “The Good Wife”
  • Colin Hanks, “Fargo”
  • Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”
  • Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan”

Mostly, I don’t want Jon Voight to win. I don’t really have a reason except I don’t watch “Ray Donovan” and Jon Voight always wears that dumb white scarf to awards shows and I don’t think he should be awarded for that. Anyway. Bill Murray was hilarious and sad in “Olive Kitteridge,” but I imagine his part was too small in comparison to his fellow nominees to get much notice. I imagine this will come down to a choice between Matt Bomer and Colin Hanks, both of whom are deserving. My gut tells me that Matt Bomer will win.

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